A list called the 8 Great Ideas in Computer Architecture outlines
core concepts that have made the semiconductor industry so productive over the
past 70 years. The first of these says, “Design for Moore’s Law.” While Gordon
Moore’s prediction held, transistor density doubled faster than the design
cycle of most products. Products conceptualized around current technology would
be obsolete before they were released, so engineers had to anticipate and
design for future technology.
Moore halved his prediction in 1975, and the rate of change in transistor
density has continued to decrease since then, at least in general. To
compensate, hardware has been specialized for many different tasks,
notably with the use of GPU’s and TPU’s for machine learning and with
other processors optimized for machine vision. The Machine Learning for Systems
project at Google Brain, which uses reinforcement learning to optimize
chip floor planning, is an amazing example of how the principle of engineering
for projected needs and technology continues to be a core principle in silicon
design.
Only a small percentage of the tech industry focuses on chip design, but given the
rapid advancement of computer hardware and software in every sector of the industry, especially
in areas like edge computing and artificial intelligence, engineers should still “design
for Moore’s Law” or design products that not only make use of the most current
technology but also anticipate the capabilities of future systems and are
positioned to fill future needs. Engineers today are not looking at a single
area of growth, as Moore’s Law did, but rather at many different advancing
technologies in areas such as connectivity, data processing, sensors, electric
actuation, and batteries. How do engineers live beyond the edge of current
technology? Is this accomplished by specialization in one area, or by a broad
understanding of all of the technologies that combine in complex systems? What are some technologies that are following a growth projection like computer processors did 50 years ago?