The author of Elm has already done this analysis:
I was really excited when I first saw these results, but the RealWorld App is not that big. The Vue implementation is only about 2000 lines. So what about larger projects? We had a community member working on a 49,315 line application try the new version and he got 114kb after compilation, minification, and gzip. That is in the ballpark of the 100kb produced by the 2000 lines in the Vue implementation! So it looks like your projects need to get exceptionally large before you start running into the baseline issues you see in JavaScript.
The current Simple IoT frontend codebase is ~4K SLOC. It is not too likely that many applications SIOT is tragetting will reach 10x this size, but even then a 100K line project is still only 200kB – still not a huge deal for these types of applications where load time is not all that critical. And even then you could cache assets to make things load faster.